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Catalog
M · 15 entries

Markets

Evidence-based analysis of hidden consequences in markets.

M001
80%

Index Fund Reflexivity

Passive index investing beats active management and is the optimal strategy for most investors.

+35pppassive share of us equity market+15pps&p 500 concentration (top 10 stocks)
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M002
75%

Zero-Fee Brokerage Model

Free trading democratizes markets and helps retail investors build wealth.

+300%retail trading volume-3%average retail investor returns vs index
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M005
85%

ZIRP Zombie Company Effect

Low interest rates stimulate economic growth and help businesses thrive.

+200%zombie company share (public firms)-50%venture funding (peak to trough)
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M008
80%

Subscription Fatigue Ceiling

Subscription models create predictable recurring revenue and better customer relationships.

+400%average household subscriptions+300%monthly subscription spend
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M009
81%

Freemium Conversion Ceiling

Freemium models drive growth by converting free users into paying customers at scale.

-70%free-to-paid conversion rateNegative unit economicsinfrastructure cost per user
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M010
80%

Network Effect Reversal

Network effects create permanent, defensible competitive moats.

-40-60%platform quality at scale-90%user switching cost
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M011
80%

Unicorn Valuation Gravity

High valuations attract talent, customers, and signal company strength.

+3,000%unicorn companies globally-70%unicorns that achieved profitable exit
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M012
85%

Buyback Hollowing

Stock buybacks return value to shareholders and signal management confidence.

+350%s&p 500 annual buybacksInverted prioritybuybacks vs. r&d spending
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M014
85%

Algorithmic Trading Herding

Algorithmic trading provides market efficiency and better price discovery.

Improvedaverage bid-ask spread+500%flash crash frequency
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M016
80%

Gig Economy Race to Bottom

Gig platforms create flexible work opportunities that benefit workers and consumers.

Below minimum wage in many statesmedian gig worker hourly earnings (after expenses)Unsustainablegig worker annual churn rate
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M019
85%

Creator Economy Power Law

The creator economy democratizes income and lets everyone monetize their passion.

Extreme concentrationrevenue share captured by top 1%Below subsistencemedian annual creator earnings
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M022
79%

AI Hype Cycle Capital Misallocation

AI is the next platform shift and current investment levels are justified by future returns.

Massive disconnectai infrastructure spend vs ai revenue+300% vs 2021ai startup funding (2024)
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M023
80%

Buy Now Pay Later Debt Normalization

BNPL makes purchases more affordable and helps consumers manage their budgets.

+40%average order value with bnplSignificantbnpl users missing payments
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M024
80%

Meme Stock Market Structure Distortion

Retail investor coordination democratizes markets and levels the playing field.

90%+ lost moneyretail traders who profited from gme+73%pfof revenue for market makers (2021)
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M025
83%

Tariff Retaliation Cascade

Tariffs protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits by making imports more expensive.

+15%consumer prices (tariffed goods)-20%export revenue (retaliatory sectors)
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