What would disprove this analysis? (Criterion 1)

Pandemic preparedness funding remains at or above 2021 levels through 2030

What would disprove this analysis? (Criterion 2)

Public trust in health institutions recovers to pre-pandemic levels within 5 years

What would disprove this analysis? (Criterion 3)

Surveillance systems and stockpiles are maintained at full operational capacity during inter-pandemic periods

When should you avoid pandemic preparedness fatigue?

You're cutting pandemic preparedness funding because 'COVID is over'. Your preparedness plan assumes the next pandemic will look like the last one

What are alternatives?

Dual-use health infrastructure: Build systems that provide value during non-pandemic times (general disease surveillance, hospital capacity). International pandemic treaty: Binding international commitments to maintain preparedness regardless of domestic political cycles. Private sector preparedness requirements: Require large employers to maintain pandemic response plans and supplies as a condition of operation

Catalog

H006

Science & Health

Pandemic Preparedness Fatigue

HIGH(85%)

February 2026

4 sources

Context

After COVID-19 killed millions and cost the global economy trillions, the world vowed 'never again.' Governments created pandemic preparedness offices, funded surveillance systems, and stockpiled supplies. But institutional memory is short and budgets are competitive. Within 3 years of the pandemic's acute phase, preparedness funding was being cut, surveillance systems defunded, and stockpiles allowed to expire. The pattern is well-documented: after every major pandemic (1918 flu, 2003 SARS, 2009 H1N1, 2014 Ebola), the world invests in preparedness, then defunds it when the threat feels distant. COVID-19 was supposed to be different because of its unprecedented scale. It wasn't. The preparedness infrastructure built in 2020-2022 is already eroding, and the next pandemic — which epidemiologists consider a certainty — will find us less prepared than we were in 2019.

Hypothesis

What people believe

“COVID-19 permanently improved global pandemic preparedness and response capabilities.”

Actual Chain

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Preparedness funding gets cut as pandemic memory fades(US pandemic preparedness office budget cut 30% by 2025)

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Competing budget priorities (defense, infrastructure) crowd out preparedness

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Politicians can't justify spending on threats that aren't visible

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Preparedness is prevention — and prevention never gets credit because nothing happens

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Surveillance systems degrade without sustained investment(Wastewater surveillance programs defunded in multiple states)

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Early warning systems require continuous operation, not just crisis activation

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Trained personnel leave for stable jobs when funding becomes uncertain

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Public trust in health institutions eroded by pandemic response(Trust in CDC dropped from 69% to 44% (2020-2024))

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Politicization of public health measures reduces compliance in future pandemics

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Vaccine hesitancy increased — not just for COVID but for all vaccines

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Misinformation infrastructure built during COVID persists and grows

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Stockpiles expire and aren't replenished(Strategic National Stockpile PPE expiring without replacement)

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Ventilators, PPE, and antivirals have shelf lives — stockpiling is ongoing, not one-time

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Domestic manufacturing capacity built during COVID shutting down as demand drops

Impact

Metric	Before	After	Delta
US pandemic preparedness funding (vs. 2021 peak)	Peak (2021)	-30% (2025)	Declining
Trust in CDC	69% (2020)	44% (2024)	-25pp
Wastewater surveillance programs active	Peak coverage (2022)	Declining — multiple states defunded	Shrinking
Childhood vaccination rates (non-COVID)	94% (2019)	90% (2024)	-4pp

Navigation

Don't If

•You're cutting pandemic preparedness funding because 'COVID is over'
•Your preparedness plan assumes the next pandemic will look like the last one

If You Must

1.Fund preparedness as permanent infrastructure, not crisis response — like fire departments, not fire sales
2.Automate stockpile rotation so supplies are used before expiration and continuously replenished
3.Maintain surveillance systems during inter-pandemic periods — they're useless if activated only during crises
4.Rebuild public trust through transparency and depoliticization of public health guidance

Alternatives

Dual-use health infrastructure — Build systems that provide value during non-pandemic times (general disease surveillance, hospital capacity)
International pandemic treaty — Binding international commitments to maintain preparedness regardless of domestic political cycles
Private sector preparedness requirements — Require large employers to maintain pandemic response plans and supplies as a condition of operation

Falsifiability

This analysis is wrong if:

Pandemic preparedness funding remains at or above 2021 levels through 2030
Public trust in health institutions recovers to pre-pandemic levels within 5 years
Surveillance systems and stockpiles are maintained at full operational capacity during inter-pandemic periods

Sources

1.
Johns Hopkins: Global Health Security Index
Global preparedness scores declining despite COVID-19 experience
2.
KFF: Public Trust in CDC
Trust in CDC dropped from 69% to 44% between 2020 and 2024
3.
Nature: Pandemic Preparedness After COVID
Analysis of how pandemic preparedness investments are already eroding
4.
WHO: Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response
International efforts to maintain preparedness through binding agreements

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