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I010
Infrastructure

5G Coverage vs Capacity Tradeoff

HIGH(80%)
·
February 2026
·
4 sources
I010Infrastructure
80% confidence

What people believe

5G provides dramatically faster internet for everyone.

What actually happens
+100-300%Average 5G speed (real-world)
NegligiblemmWave coverage
MassiveCarrier infrastructure investment
UnfulfilledRevolutionary use cases enabled
4 sources · 3 falsifiability criteria
Context

5G was marketed as revolutionary — 100x faster than 4G, enabling autonomous vehicles, remote surgery, and IoT at scale. Carriers spent $100B+ on spectrum and deployment. But 5G comes in three flavors with very different characteristics. Low-band 5G is barely faster than 4G. Mid-band offers meaningful improvement but requires 3-4x more cell sites. High-band mmWave delivers the promised speeds but has a range of only 500 meters and can't penetrate walls. The 5G that was marketed — multi-gigabit speeds everywhere — is physically impossible without a cell site on every block. Most consumers experience 5G as a slightly faster version of 4G with a new icon on their phone. The revolutionary use cases (remote surgery, autonomous vehicles) require the mmWave variant that covers less than 1% of the country.

Hypothesis

What people believe

5G provides dramatically faster internet for everyone.

Actual Chain
Three 5G variants create confusion(Consumer experience varies 10-100x depending on band)
Low-band 5G barely faster than 4G LTE
mmWave 5G available in less than 1% of coverage area
Marketing doesn't distinguish between 5G variants
Infrastructure cost far exceeds 4G deployment(3-4x more cell sites needed for mid-band coverage)
Carriers pass costs to consumers through higher plans
Rural 5G deployment economically unviable
Permitting for new cell sites faces local opposition
Revolutionary use cases remain theoretical(Remote surgery, autonomous vehicles still not viable on 5G)
Latency requirements for critical applications not met by real-world 5G
Coverage gaps make reliability-dependent applications impossible
Impact
MetricBeforeAfterDelta
Average 5G speed (real-world)4G: 30-50 Mbps5G: 50-200 Mbps (low/mid-band)+100-300%
mmWave coverageN/A<1% of coverage areaNegligible
Carrier infrastructure investment4G baseline$100B+ for 5GMassive
Revolutionary use cases enabledPromised manyNear zero at scaleUnfulfilled
Navigation

Don't If

  • You're building applications that depend on mmWave 5G speeds being available everywhere
  • Your business case assumes 5G coverage equals 5G capacity

If You Must

  • 1.Design applications for mid-band 5G speeds, not mmWave theoretical maximums
  • 2.Build fallback to 4G for any application requiring reliability
  • 3.Focus on 5G benefits that work with mid-band: capacity for dense areas, improved latency
  • 4.Don't promise consumers revolutionary experiences that require mmWave

Alternatives

  • 4G LTE AdvancedContinued 4G investment provides 80% of 5G benefits at fraction of cost
  • Wi-Fi 6E/7For indoor high-speed needs, Wi-Fi is more practical than 5G
  • Fixed wireless access5G for home internet in underserved areas — a practical use case
Falsifiability

This analysis is wrong if:

  • mmWave 5G achieves coverage comparable to mid-band within 5 years of deployment
  • 5G enables at least one revolutionary use case (remote surgery, autonomous vehicles) at commercial scale
  • Average real-world 5G speeds exceed 1 Gbps for majority of users
Sources
  1. 1.
    Ookla Speedtest: 5G Performance Report

    Real-world 5G speeds averaging 50-200 Mbps, far below marketed multi-gigabit claims

  2. 2.
    GSMA: 5G Deployment Economics

    Analysis showing 3-4x more cell sites needed for equivalent mid-band 5G coverage vs 4G

  3. 3.
    IEEE: 5G mmWave Propagation Challenges

    Technical analysis of mmWave range limitations and building penetration failures

  4. 4.
    Deloitte: 5G Reality Check

    Assessment showing gap between 5G marketing promises and real-world consumer experience

Related

This is a mirror — it shows what's already true.

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