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I012
Infrastructure

CDN Centralization Fragility

HIGH(80%)
·
February 2026
·
4 sources
I012Infrastructure
80% confidence

What people believe

CDNs make the internet faster and more reliable.

What actually happens
-60%Average page load time
+10,000%Blast radius of CDN outage
FragileInternet resilience
IncreasingMajor CDN outages per year
4 sources · 3 falsifiability criteria
Context

Content Delivery Networks were designed to make the internet faster and more reliable by distributing content across global edge servers. And they do — for normal operations. But the CDN market has consolidated dramatically. Cloudflare, Akamai, and Fastly together serve a majority of internet traffic. When one of these providers has an outage, it doesn't take down one website — it takes down thousands simultaneously. The June 2021 Fastly outage knocked out Amazon, Reddit, the UK government, and major news sites for an hour. The Cloudflare outage in June 2022 disrupted Discord, Shopify, and thousands of businesses. The infrastructure designed to prevent single points of failure has itself become a single point of failure, just at a higher level of abstraction.

Hypothesis

What people believe

CDNs make the internet faster and more reliable.

Actual Chain
CDN market consolidates to 3-4 dominant providers(Top 3 CDNs serve majority of web traffic)
Single CDN outage affects thousands of sites simultaneously
Correlated failures across unrelated services
DDoS attacks target CDN infrastructure for maximum impact
Websites lose ability to function without CDN(Origin servers can't handle direct traffic)
Origin infrastructure downsized because CDN handles load
CDN becomes required infrastructure, not optional optimization
Configuration errors cascade globally(Single misconfiguration affects millions of users)
BGP misconfigurations propagate through CDN network
SSL certificate issues affect all sites on shared infrastructure
WAF rule changes can block legitimate traffic globally
Impact
MetricBeforeAfterDelta
Average page load time3-5 seconds1-2 seconds-60%
Blast radius of CDN outageSingle siteThousands of sites+10,000%
Internet resilienceDistributedConcentrated in 3-4 providersFragile
Major CDN outages per yearRare4-6 significant incidentsIncreasing
Navigation

Don't If

  • Your entire infrastructure depends on a single CDN with no fallback
  • Your origin servers can't handle any direct traffic without CDN

If You Must

  • 1.Implement multi-CDN failover for critical services
  • 2.Maintain origin server capacity to handle degraded traffic during CDN outages
  • 3.Use DNS-based failover that can route around CDN outages
  • 4.Test CDN failure scenarios regularly in disaster recovery drills

Alternatives

  • Multi-CDN architectureUse 2+ CDN providers with automatic failover
  • Edge computing at originDistribute origin servers geographically rather than relying on CDN edge
  • Graceful degradationDesign sites to function (slowly) without CDN rather than fail completely
Falsifiability

This analysis is wrong if:

  • CDN market diversifies to 10+ providers with roughly equal market share
  • Major CDN outages decrease in frequency and blast radius over time
  • Websites maintain full functionality during CDN provider outages without multi-CDN architecture
Sources
  1. 1.
    Fastly Outage Post-Incident Report (June 2021)

    Single configuration error took down Amazon, Reddit, UK government sites for ~1 hour

  2. 2.
    Cloudflare Outage Report (June 2022)

    BGP configuration change disrupted Discord, Shopify, and thousands of businesses

  3. 3.
    W3Techs: CDN Market Share

    Market concentration data showing top 3 CDNs serve majority of web traffic

  4. 4.
    ACM: The Consolidation of Internet Infrastructure

    Academic analysis of how CDN consolidation creates systemic risk for the internet

Related

This is a mirror — it shows what's already true.

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