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M002
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Zero-Fee Brokerage Model

MEDIUM(75%)
·
February 2026
·
4 sources
M002Markets
75% confidence

What people believe

Free trading democratizes markets and helps retail investors build wealth.

What actually happens
+300%Retail trading volume
-3%Average retail investor returns vs index
Massive increaseNew brokerage accounts
+400%Options trading by retail
4 sources · 3 falsifiability criteria
Context

Robinhood pioneered commission-free stock trading in 2015, and by 2020 every major brokerage had followed. The pitch was democratization — remove the $7-10 per trade barrier and let everyone participate in markets. Trading volumes exploded. Millions of new retail investors opened accounts. But free trading isn't free. The revenue shifted from commissions to payment for order flow (PFOF), where brokerages sell customer orders to market makers like Citadel Securities. This creates a structural conflict of interest: the brokerage's customer is the market maker, not the retail investor. Worse, zero friction encourages overtrading. Retail investors who would have thought twice about a $7 trade now execute dozens of speculative trades daily. The gamification of trading — confetti animations, push notifications, fractional shares — turned investing into entertainment, and entertainment into losses.

Hypothesis

What people believe

Free trading democratizes markets and helps retail investors build wealth.

Actual Chain
Revenue shifts to payment for order flow(Brokerages earn from market makers, not investors)
Structural conflict of interest — customer is the market maker
Price improvement for retail orders decreases
Execution quality becomes opaque
Zero friction encourages overtrading(Retail trading volume up 300%)
Speculative day trading replaces long-term investing
Options trading by inexperienced investors surges
Average retail investor underperforms index by 4-6%/yr
Gamification turns investing into entertainment(Confetti, streaks, push notifications drive engagement)
Behavioral addiction patterns emerge in trading apps
Financial literacy doesn't improve despite increased participation
Impact
MetricBeforeAfterDelta
Retail trading volumeBaseline+300%+300%
Average retail investor returns vs index-2%/yr (with commissions)-4-6%/yr (overtrading)-3%
New brokerage accountsBaseline+150M accounts (2020-2024)Massive increase
Options trading by retail5% of volume25% of volume+400%
Navigation

Don't If

  • You're building a trading platform and your primary revenue is payment for order flow
  • Your app design encourages frequent trading through gamification mechanics

If You Must

  • 1.Disclose payment for order flow prominently, not buried in terms of service
  • 2.Show users their total trading costs including spread, not just commissions
  • 3.Add friction to high-risk trades like options and margin
  • 4.Display long-term performance comparisons against index funds

Alternatives

  • Low-cost index investingVanguard model — low fees, long-term focus, no gamification
  • Subscription-based brokeragesFlat monthly fee aligns incentives with investor outcomes
  • Direct indexingCustom index portfolios without trading temptation
Falsifiability

This analysis is wrong if:

  • Retail investors using zero-commission platforms achieve returns matching or exceeding index funds over 5+ years
  • Payment for order flow provides better execution quality for retail investors than commission-based models
  • Increased trading frequency correlates with improved financial outcomes for retail investors
Sources
  1. 1.
    SEC Report on Payment for Order Flow

    SEC analysis showing PFOF creates conflicts of interest and may reduce execution quality for retail investors

  2. 2.
    FINRA: Retail Trading Activity During COVID

    Data showing 300% increase in retail trading volume correlated with zero-commission adoption

  3. 3.
    Barber & Odean: Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth

    Seminal research showing individual investors who trade most earn the lowest returns

  4. 4.
    Massachusetts Securities Division: Robinhood Complaint

    Regulatory complaint documenting gamification strategies and their impact on investor behavior

Related

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