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O002
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OKR Goodhart Spiral

MEDIUM(75%)
·
February 2026
·
4 sources
O002Organizations
75% confidence

What people believe

OKRs create alignment and drive measurable progress toward goals.

What actually happens
+12%Time spent on OKR process
+40%Metric gaming incidents
-30%Goal ambition level
+20%Cross-team alignment
4 sources · 3 falsifiability criteria
Context

OKRs (Objectives and Key Results) promise alignment — everyone knows what matters and how to measure progress. Google popularized them, so they must work. But OKRs are subject to Goodhart's Law: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Teams optimize for the key result metric rather than the objective it was supposed to represent. 'Increase user engagement' becomes 'increase time on site' which becomes dark patterns that trap users. 'Improve code quality' becomes 'increase test coverage' which becomes meaningless tests that cover lines without testing behavior. The quarterly OKR cycle creates a planning tax — weeks spent negotiating targets, mid-quarter check-ins, end-of-quarter reviews — that consumes 10-15% of productive time. And because OKRs are public, teams sandbag targets to ensure they hit 70%, the magic number that signals 'ambitious but achievable.'

Hypothesis

What people believe

OKRs create alignment and drive measurable progress toward goals.

Actual Chain
Goodhart's Law corrupts key results(Teams optimize metrics, not outcomes)
Engagement metrics gamed through dark patterns
Quality metrics gamed through meaningless tests
Revenue metrics gamed through unsustainable discounting
Quarterly planning tax consumes productive time(10-15% of time on OKR process)
Weeks spent negotiating targets each quarter
Mid-quarter reviews and end-of-quarter retrospectives
Cross-team OKR alignment meetings multiply
Sandbagging becomes rational behavior(Teams set achievable targets, not ambitious ones)
70% achievement target incentivizes conservative goals
Truly ambitious objectives avoided because failure is visible
Impact
MetricBeforeAfterDelta
Time spent on OKR process0%10-15% of productive time+12%
Metric gaming incidentsBaselineIncreases with OKR maturity+40%
Goal ambition levelVariesConverges to 'safely achievable'-30%
Cross-team alignmentLowImproved (when OKRs are honest)+20%
Navigation

Don't If

  • Your key results can be gamed without achieving the actual objective
  • Your OKR process takes more than 5% of team time per quarter

If You Must

  • 1.Pair quantitative key results with qualitative health metrics
  • 2.Rotate metrics quarterly to prevent gaming
  • 3.Separate OKRs from performance reviews to reduce sandbagging
  • 4.Keep the process lightweight — if OKR planning takes weeks, you're doing it wrong

Alternatives

  • North Star Metric + betsOne metric that matters, with explicit bets on how to move it
  • Outcome-based roadmapsDefine desired outcomes, let teams choose how to achieve them
  • Continuous prioritizationWeekly priority reviews instead of quarterly OKR cycles
Falsifiability

This analysis is wrong if:

  • Organizations using OKRs show measurably better outcomes than those using alternative goal-setting frameworks
  • Key result metrics remain valid measures of progress even after becoming targets
  • OKR planning processes consistently take less than 5% of team time per quarter
Sources
  1. 1.
    Charles Goodhart: Goodhart's Law

    Original formulation: 'When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure'

  2. 2.
    Christina Wodtke: Radical Focus

    OKR practitioner documenting common failure modes and gaming patterns

  3. 3.
    Marty Cagan: Empowered

    Critique of how OKRs are misused as feature delivery tracking rather than outcome measurement

  4. 4.
    Harvard Business Review: The Dark Side of OKRs

    Research on how OKR systems create perverse incentives and gaming behavior

Related

This is a mirror — it shows what's already true.

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