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P016
Policy

Section 230 Repeal Collateral Damage

HIGH(80%)
·
February 2026
·
4 sources
P016Policy
80% confidence

What people believe

Repealing Section 230 will hold platforms accountable for harmful content and improve the internet.

What actually happens
-99%Websites hosting user content
-95%New social platform launches
+10-20%Big Tech market share
+500%Legitimate speech removed preemptively
4 sources · 3 falsifiability criteria
Context

Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act shields platforms from liability for user-generated content. Critics from both political sides want it repealed or reformed — the left says it enables hate speech and misinformation, the right says it enables censorship. But Section 230 doesn't just protect Big Tech. It protects every website with a comment section, every forum, every review site, every small social platform. Repealing it wouldn't hurt Facebook — they can afford lawyers. It would kill the open internet.

Hypothesis

What people believe

Repealing Section 230 will hold platforms accountable for harmful content and improve the internet.

Actual Chain
Small platforms and websites can't afford liability risk(Comment sections, forums, and review sites shut down)
Any website hosting user content becomes a lawsuit target
Small businesses remove review sections, forums close, blogs disable comments
Only companies with large legal teams can afford to host user content
Big Tech consolidates — they can afford compliance(Market concentration increases)
Facebook, Google, and Amazon have legal departments larger than most companies
New social platforms become impossible to launch — liability too high
The regulation meant to constrain Big Tech becomes their moat
Platforms over-moderate to avoid liability(Anything potentially controversial gets removed preemptively)
Political speech, satire, and criticism suppressed as liability risk
Whistleblower content removed — platforms can't risk hosting it
The internet becomes a sanitized corporate space
Paradoxically, moderation incentives reverse(Platforms may moderate LESS to claim they're not publishers)
If moderating makes you liable, the rational choice is to not moderate at all
Platforms argue they're neutral conduits — any curation creates liability
Impact
MetricBeforeAfterDelta
Websites hosting user contentMillionsThousands (only those who can afford legal risk)-99%
New social platform launchesHundreds/yearNear zero-95%
Big Tech market shareHighHigher — competitors eliminated+10-20%
Legitimate speech removed preemptivelySomeMassive increase+500%
Navigation

Don't If

  • You believe repealing 230 will primarily affect Big Tech — it won't
  • You haven't modeled the impact on small websites, forums, and review platforms

If You Must

  • 1.Reform narrowly — target specific harms (CSAM, terrorism) rather than broad repeal
  • 2.Include safe harbors for good-faith moderation efforts
  • 3.Exempt small platforms below a user threshold from new liability
  • 4.Require transparency reports rather than imposing content liability

Alternatives

  • Transparency requirementsRequire platforms to disclose moderation policies and enforcement data — accountability without liability
  • Duty of care frameworkRequire reasonable efforts to address known harms without making platforms liable for all user content
  • Algorithmic accountabilityHold platforms responsible for what they amplify, not what users post
Falsifiability

This analysis is wrong if:

  • Repealing Section 230 reduces harmful content online without reducing legitimate speech or small platform viability
  • Small websites and forums can afford the legal costs of content liability without Section 230 protection
  • Big Tech market share decreases after Section 230 repeal as new competitors emerge
Sources
  1. 1.
    EFF: Section 230 of the CDA

    Comprehensive analysis of how Section 230 enables the open internet beyond just Big Tech

  2. 2.
    Techdirt: Section 230 Case Studies

    Detailed analysis of how 230 protects small websites, not just large platforms

  3. 3.
    Brookings: Section 230 Reform Proposals

    Analysis of various reform proposals and their likely second-order effects

  4. 4.
    Stanford CIS: Internet Intermediary Liability

    Research on how intermediary liability regimes affect innovation and speech across jurisdictions

Related

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