HomeEvery analysis follows
The Framework
Every analysis follows
CHAIN.
A structured approach to analyzing second-order effects that ensures falsifiable claims, actionable insights, and cumulative knowledge.
C
Context
H
Hypothesis
A
Actual Chain
I
Impact
N
Navigation
C
Context
What's the situation and decision?
What to include
- •Organization profile (size, stage, constraints)
- •Decision under consideration
- •Why this decision is being evaluated
- •Relevant background and history
Example
Organization with 10-50 engineers, monolith showing scaling pain, evaluating container orchestration.
H
Hypothesis
What's the expected first-order outcome?
What to include
- •The stated goal or expected benefit
- •First-order thinking: "If X, then Y"
- •What proponents claim will happen
- •The surface-level reasoning
Example
"Kubernetes will give us better scaling, deployment flexibility, and industry-standard infrastructure."
A
Actual Chain
What second/third/nth order effects occur?
What to include
- •Map the cascade of consequences
- •Identify 2nd, 3rd, 4th order effects
- •Show how effects compound
- •Reveal hidden dependencies
Example
Adopt K8s → Requires expertise → Scarce engineers → Salary premium → Budget pressure → Slower hiring → ...
I
Impact
Quantified consequences (time, money, complexity)
What to include
- •Before/after metrics where possible
- •Time horizons for effects
- •Direct and indirect costs
- •Hidden costs often overlooked
Example
Infra team: 2 → 4-5 FTE (+100-150%). Onboarding: 2 → 6 weeks (+200%). Monthly tooling: $2K → $8K (+300%).
N
Navigation
How to anticipate or mitigate
What to include
- •When NOT to make this decision
- •If you must, how to minimize harm
- •Alternative approaches
- •Mitigation strategies
Example
Don't adopt if <50 services. If you must: start with managed K8s, budget 6-month learning curve, 2 dedicated infra engineers.
Why This Structure
Three guarantees.
01
Falsifiable Claims
Every entry states what evidence would prove it wrong. You can check if we're right.
02
Actionable Insights
Navigation section provides concrete guidance. You can use this immediately.
03
Cumulative Knowledge
Cross-references connect related effects. Knowledge compounds across entries.
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